Theory #1. complexity of NFL

This is not so much a theory as it is a fact. This is probably the most universal answer for why a player had success in college but not the pros. Ask any NFL executive about draft busts, this will in all likelihood be the first answer you get every time. And the answer is simple, not overly complex, the answer is put very simply. Some kids aren’t smart enough.

College schemes, and systems aren’t very complicated, so you never know which player can, and can’t learn an NFL offense or defense. One thing that not many people understand about pro football is the complexity of the sport. The players don’t need to be smart, they need to be brilliant. That might sound strange, because stereotypes tell us that the NFL is made up of a bunch of meat-heads. But when you look at NFL players IQ and Wonderlic scores, they are mind blowing. (The Wonderlic test is a less commonly known test but it is designed to test a persons aptitude of prospective employees for learning and problem-solving in a range of occupations.) So when we see how smart an NFL player actually has to be, it makes more sense as to how many players just cannot grasp NFL schemes, and systems. Because college athletes aren’t asked to learn anything complex, so you never know if the player can handle the NFL schemes. A good hometown example is Wes Welker. By NFL terms, Wes Welker is an extremely underwhelming athlete. running a poor 4.6 40 yard dash, at such a small size, and not being a very strong player. But he has an uncanny knowledge of defenses. He has a keen ability to watch a defense develop on a play and know exactly where to run. What the average fan doesn’t realize is the Brady, and Welker never had a clue what route he was going to run before the play started. It wasn’t until the play developed that the ball was thrown, And it wasn’t random. every single time, Brady knew right where Welker was going, and Welker knew right where to go, because they both read defenses the same way, and went to the same places every single time. So when we look at an example like Wes Welker it makes sense as to why he went undrafted and barely even got a shot in the NFL. Because he has many of the intangibles to play in the NFL, but often many of the intangibles that it takes to have success don’t translate to the NFL

 

The transition from college to the Pros

Of all sports, the NFL has by far the lowest success rate for college athletes. Out of 157 drafted players only 67 will ever see a single start. And of those 67 players that do see a start, most of them will only see a few more, and be cut soon after. Why is it so difficult for college athletes to have success in the pros? After all, most college football players spend four years playing school ball, while in most sports, it is very common for athletes to leave after one year of college.and it is very common for athletes to skip college altogether and go straight out of high school. There has never been an athlete come straight out of high school into the NFL because an 18 year old kids body is not ready for the beating it will take in the NFL. So if football players spend substantially more time perfecting their craft before they go pro, why is it they have the lowest success rate by a long shot? realistically they should be more prepared and less likely to fail, right?

In every professional sport there are infamous busts. Everyone can name a player who so much was expected from, and had no success in the pros. Let’s assume that every player drafted in the first four rounds is expected to have in impact on the team. Considering there are approximately 140 picks in the first four rounds, and only about 20 of those players will have lasting success with the team that drafted them. The NFL spends a considerable amount of time, and money researching, scouting, and working out, college athletes to see if they would want them on their team. They use far more resources than any other professional sport just trying to get the best players they can, and these guys are supposed to be the best at what they do. So how is it none of them seem to have a clue of who to pick? There are many theories, but these are some of the most common, and these few are confirmed by every NFL GM, and executive, they all have different theories on some things, but these are a few that are Universally agreed on.

College schemes, and systems aren’t very complicated, so you never know which player can, and can’t learn an NFL offense or defense. One thing that not many people understand about pro football is the complexity of the sport. Not only do the players have to be smart, they have to be brilliant. That might sound strange, because stereotypes tell us that they are all a bunch of meat-heads. But when you look at NFL players IQ and Wonderlic scores, they are mind blowing. The Wonderlic test is a less commonly known test but it is designed to test a persons aptitude of prospective employees for learning and problem-solving in a range of occupations. So when we see how smart an NFL player actually has to be, it makes more sense as to how many players just cannot grasp NFL schemes, and systems. A good hometown example is Wes Welker. By NFL terms, Wes Welker is an extremely underwhelming athlete. running a poor 4.6 40 yard dash, at such a small size, and not being a very strong player. But he has an uncanny knowledge of defenses. He has a keen ability to watch a defense develop on a play and know exactly where to run. What the average fan doesn’t realize is the Brady, and Welker never had a clue what route he was going to run before the play started. It wasn’t until the play developed that the ball was thrown, And it wasn’t random. every single time, brady knew right where welker was going, and welker knew right where to go, because they both read defenses the same way, and went to the same places every single time.